Forecasting heat stress months in advance from the current state of ENSO

CAOS Assistant Professor Yi Zhang and collaborators published a paper on a seasonal forecast model of extreme heat stress in the tropics. Their predictive model hinges on a physical mechanism: the most extreme heat stress is influenced by sea surface temperatures in the warmest portions of the tropical ocean. The new model can forecast the annual maximum wet-bulb temperatures, a metric for heat stress, for the hot season in equatorial countries months in advance. Read more here.